TV in Ten Years

[Blubatt]

While they were around before, we can all agree that the last 10 years (2011-2021) have been huge in terms of the medium of Television. Streaming, Smart TVs, and now HD becoming the standard definition for most mainstream channels. As the medium evolves, where do you see Television going? Let's imagine how we'll watch our shows in 2031.

I am aware such speculation can often lead to very riveting arguments and the likes, so I will say this: This is about what may happen, not what will happen, or what you think should happen. As much as HDDVD would have been a better format than Blu Ray, one lost, the other did not. We all thought 3D TV was the future at one point, but that has died off. The trends and fads of 2021 will almost certainly have waves of popularity.

[Neil Jones]

Well sci-fi would have you believe you can point a ray gun at somebody's temple and they'd be able to "watch" an entire series or two of a TV show in 2 seconds flat.

Of course a lot of sci-fi "fiction" became reality over the years, including the concept of a space station (as was seen in 2001: A Space Odyssey) and related computer voice control (The HAL 9000 in that film and more recently Siri, Alexa and Cortana, though none are on a level like HAL) and of course Back To The Future "predicted" the concept of hoverboards and driverless cars appeared in fiction in the 1960s, so maybe we will consume TV and film via the ray gun.

3D may resurface at some point since the whole basic concept is easiest to recreate via the Pulfrich Effect, but that's a absolute PITA to maintain for extended periods.

[Richard]

You could argue that Blu Ray didn’t really win as the take-up is nowhere near what happened with DVD. The rise of streaming means that many if not most households don’t play discs of any kind any more. We have a blu-ray player but rarely use it. I have the first 4 seasons of Start Trek TNG on Blu Ray but have never opened seasons 3 and 4 because it’s all on Netflix.

I worry about the future of linear TV and the BBC in particular. There is a danger that falling viewing numbers will leading to a reduction in quality due to less advertising revenue and a threat to the TV Licence.

[JAS84]

A lot changes in 10 years. In 1960, there was only two channels in black and white, and ITV wasn't even available everywhere yet. In 1970, TV had only just gone colour, and BBC 2 had launched six years before. In 1980, we still had only three channels and were still two years away from both Channel 4 and Satellite TV (Sky) launching. In 1990, Sky had recently launched on Astra (the previous year). By 2000, Sky Digital has launched and the old analogue service was in the process of winding down. Also Channel 5 had launched by then. Then in 2010, streaming services had started to appear and the terrestrial digital switchover was underway. Last year, in 2020, streaming was exploding with several new services launching, and traditional linear channels were losing ratings rapidly. So yeah, things will certainly change again by 2030. Will it be for better or worse? Ask again in a decade from now!

[Blubatt]

You could argue that Blu Ray didn’t really win as the take-up is nowhere near what happened with DVD. The rise of streaming means that many if not most households don’t play discs of any kind any more. We have a blu-ray player but rarely use it. I have the first 4 seasons of Start Trek TNG on Blu Ray but have never opened seasons 3 and 4 because it’s all on Netflix.

I worry about the future of linear TV and the BBC in particular. There is a danger that falling viewing numbers will leading to a reduction in quality due to less advertising revenue and a threat to the TV Licence.

And that is something I will be interested in seeing down the line: What will happen to Terrestrial broadcasters. Do we see them becoming a window shop of curated streaming shows, or do they try to do more to localise programming, and offer 'appointment to view' programming and experiences for people? My feeling is that the BBC and Channel 4 will do a bit of both, while ITV and Channel 5 will do the former, and invest in their streaming shows, while having select episodes air on linear television

[Blubatt]

In fact, my argument for TV is the same one I use for the high street: the big shops are moving out to the internet, so offer things that are harder to find on the internet. Restaurants, social areas, and niche shops, like record stores and book shops. Linear TV could become a good outlet for those things. You can have all your prime time stuff on iPlayer or BritBox, and you can have your shows that appeal to other people on linear television

[London Lite]

Linear will need to be more event based to continue. We're seeing that with BBC One showing Line of Duty as a moment for everyone to watch with the use of social media throughout the show, along with showing live events such as sports and music concerts.

Older viewers I think still appreciate the drip feed scheduling of shows on linear platforms, where as younger audiences will be drawn to the VOD providers who can binge watch new and classic shows.

I think what is important next is to move to DVB-T2 for every channel on DTT. Freeview is still largely DVB-T based with a few DVB-T2 channels which will reduce for viewers in areas that can receive the COM7 HD mux which closes next year, which has led to a platform of sub-standard SD channels in MPEG2 to cut costs which they could cut costs down even more with T2.

[technologist]

The number of (minor) linear channels will decrease with more going VOD …
There will always be appointment to view tv …… and strong linear channels …
So say in the UK the PSB and most of their daughter channels ….(inc uktv) will survive
May be with some specialist channels And sports
…think say two may be three dozen in say 10+ years time.

If it was profitable to take the COM muxes T2 it would be done…
But as Ed Vaizey said in 2011 the way to do it was to mandate PSBs to emit HD only at 700 MHz clearance
But we are well past that …….
But the Vaizey plan was very very good … which is probably why it was politically dropped !

And it would be very interesting when the NAO look at the abuse of the pump-priming funds
To move com7&8 into the mobile bands …… and the vast Failure of the purpose of those muxes

And looking beyond 10 years broadcast specific terrestrial emission will end ..
but DTT will continue withe the two dozen channels ….

[Markymark]

C4 finally out of DR mode?

[johnnyboy]

We'll be able to get BBC World on Freeview.

And the entire TVS archive will be available online.

[Keith]

The number of (minor) linear channels will decrease with more going VOD …
There will always be appointment to view tv …… and strong linear channels …
So say in the UK the PSB and most of their daughter channels ….(inc uktv) will survive
May be with some specialist channels And sports
…think say two may be three dozen in say 10+ years time.

If it was profitable to take the COM muxes T2 it would be done…
But as Ed Vaizey said in 2011 the way to do it was to mandate PSBs to emit HD only at 700 MHz clearance
But we are well past that …….
But the Vaizey plan was very very good … which is probably why it was politically dropped !

And it would be very interesting when the NAO look at the abuse of the pump-priming funds
To move com7&8 into the mobile bands …… and the vast Failure of the purpose of those muxes

And looking beyond 10 years broadcast specific terrestrial emission will end ..
but DTT will continue withe the two dozen channels ….

I'd slightly disagree, I think most muxes could go to DVB-T2, however it requires pressure from OFCOM or similar. I suspect commercial operators might be reluctant to reduce their profits by investing in an upgrade.

I wouldn't be too surprised if in 5-10 years time there will only be one DVB-T multiplex which contained SD versions of PSB channels to provide a basic service to those unable to upgrade their devices. I'd hope that the rest of the multiplexes would switch to DVB-T2, with most SD duplications removed. I believe there's also proposals to allow freeview channels which can't be received in some areas to be received via IP/ I suspect we may see an increase in channels being transmitted via this method for Freeview, particularly if more multiplexes (not just COM7) close.

In terms of the other platforms I'd imagine that SD versions of HD channels will close. Similarly as the number of internet enabled devices increases many '+1' channels may also close in preference of catch-up services, particularly if a 'play from beginning' feature is available on live streams (e.g. with watch live via iPlayer). At present they're still relatively low cost and presumably beneficial for ratings and advertisers.

I imagine the number of linear channels will decrease in favour of on demand services. I think it's only a matter of time before some of the Sky Cinema channels are closed in favour of the Sky Store. I expect there will still be a reasonable number of linear channels though, particularly for live / appointment to view programming. I also suspect in the next decade we'll see some of the streaming services either fully merge, or at least offer a way to allow you to pay single fee for multiple services and use a single login.

[technologist]

What was clever in the Vaizey plan was that the PSB would save money …..
And there is a lot more control over the PSBs than the other broadcasters .

And in very rough terms you could give every home without a T2 receiver
Using either the digital help scheme surplus (£400M) the government hoovered up
Or a similar few £100M from the pump priming of the premium from selling the 700MHz band .

For the comm muxes the broadcasters would need a certainty that there were enough eyeballs
Watching to justify the (same) advertising rates ….
And the comm mux owners itv and Arqiva that they could get more income from more channels …
To cover the cost of two set of C&M and 84 times two modulators ….. etc etc …

One useful thing that OFCOM could do is to set technical standards
the key one being SD static resolution.

[Lewser]

BBC TV in the South West still not offering an HD service and the rolling message will most likely still appear instead of the news. In some instances, it's possibly more entertaining.

[technologist]

As a lot of the work to make BBC One HD regional
….almost the only part is the replacement of PSB 3 Coding and mux
Having done connectivity and centralised opt switch (rather than rework the regions)
As the other big lumps …..
And work to make studios HD …
It’s not that far away ….

But anything in the regions is expensive
as you think if a number and multiply by 16 … and it takes time to get it all done
And the BBC has been so cash strapped under no increase of LF
for 13 years …

[tedjrr]

..... //.... ….almost the only part is the replacement of PSB 3 Coding and mux ...//...
...But anything in the regions is expensive
as you think if a number and multiply by 16....//...

Do you know if ITV are coming to the party?

They'd get to benefit from sub-regional HD variation on PSB 3, as marginally would Channel 4. Presumably, STV lose out, as there's no BBC regionality in Scotland.